If you think you can outsmart the Florida real estate market and time it right… good luck.
With today’s high level of uncertainty in our economy due to tariff wars, this is a great time to “look under the hood” and self inspect. Today, I have a few charts that’ll help you understand the Florida real estate market and get a little better and watching trends.
First up is the 10-yr Treasury yield. Most folks forget this is the one indicator that’s correlated to the 30-yr mortgage rate. They tend to get caught up in what The Federal Reserve – Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) – plans to do at their eight meetings each year. But “The Fed” changes the Federal Funds Rate. This is the interest rate charged by banks to borrow from each other and it’s not correlated to mortgage rates.
To show you what I mean, look at the two charts below. The 1st chart is the year-to-date 10-yr Treasury yield. The 2nd chart is the 30-yr fixed mortgage rate in the exact time frame. As you can see with the arrows, they have the exact patterns. In other words, they correlate.
So the next time you hear someone at happy hour telling you how they hope The Fed is going to lower rates – so mortgage rates will fall – you’ll know better, smile, and discount what they’re saying.
Florida Real Estate Market Supply
Next is a an overview of the 3rd chart that’s the main image – the active Florida real estate market Housing Inventory. Similar to how investors watch stock charts to determine the best time to buy or sell company shares, you can do the same with supply.
As you see, at the beginning of 2019, the Florida real estate market housing supply was “high” at 152,937 units for sale. Back then, the median Florida home price was $234k. Then over the next three years, until February 2022, supply fell to 35,586 units. That’s an extreme 77% crash in supply. At that time, the median house price rose 48% to $345k.
Now follow the chart back up to today where Florida’s supply is 177,008 as of April 1st. That’s a 397% rise in just over 3 years. And according to real estate data behemoth Redfin, the Florida real estate market median home price is now about $420k.
You’d think prices would be lower with that supply surge. Well, today, the number of daily MLS price reductions is rising fast. With the Florida real estate market supply at all-time highs, market timers may consider now the point when prices fall and show up in monthly reports throughout 2025. We’ll see.
As I’ve mentioned before, extreme market conditions don’t last long. They have the tendency to revert back to the mean. If a chart looks too stretched in on direction, it may revert and come back to where it was before. So if you’re a market timer, you can use these charts above to your benefit.
Good luck.
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*** If you didn’t know, my real estate specialty is downtown Delray Beach. It’s where I spend 75% of my time being a local expert. But my team of professionals is expanding and covers other areas in the event I can’t. Let me introduce you to my growing team
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*** Delray Beach is known for many great things. But in my latest blog I bring you back to our crown jewel and why our beach is second to none
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South Florida Real Estate Market Supply is ABOVE 2019
Last week’s supply was 62,457
Today’s supply is 63,086
Supply was UP 629 units last week
*** That’s a rise of 8,844 or 17% in 2025 ***
