Florida real estate supply has never been higher. (Too bad the February data isn’t available for todays missive as I know it’s even higher).
Just look at the chart below. Florida real estate supply today is almost 17% higher than in 2017. Now it’s up a whopping 375% from when supply bottomed in February 2022.
A better way to say it is, Florida real estate inventory is up 133,131 units in just three years.
Two Florida Real Estate Data Points to Memorize
What’s clear is there isn’t enough demand to absorb all this new inventory. That’s evident in two other data points:
1. Florida real estate Days on Market (DOM) averaged 24 days in February 2022. Today it’s 75 days.
2. Months of Supply (MOS) was 1.6 months back then and today it’s 7.9.
Homeowners and would-be home sellers are in shock.
For example, one of my listings received an offer in early February at 12% below the asking price. I urged my seller to take the offer.
When their listing went live on the MLS there was one other home on the market nearby. After 5 weeks with no activity, there were 6 homes for sale. My seller took my advice and we closed escrow. Today there are 8 homes for sale nearby… and prices are falling.
Florida Real Estate Participants Are Informed
For now, the stars are aligned for buyers.
But even buyers are in some state of shock. Buyers see supply rising. They see DOM soaring. And now they see MOS at the highest level in perhaps 18 years.
This makes buyers pause asking, “Should I buy now or are prices going to fall more?”
Great question. I have experience to help answer this.
When markets act in extremes like they are today, and in the 2020-2021 Covid years, they tend to revert back to the mean. Think of of this way: you can only stretch a rubber band so far before it snaps. And if it doesn’t snap, it eventually comes back to it’s “normal” position.
Knowing this market phenomenon, we could be near a peak in active supply, DOM and MOS. If so, these metrics could begin to revert back to “normal” at any moment.
So, I’m now watching the number of units sold in the Florida real estate market with a microscope. From there I narrow it down to my local market in Delray Beach. As of today, sales are up 7% year-over-year. That may not be significant, yet. But if this number stays the same or rises… buyers may have gotten the message and are in buying mode now before market conditions flip again.
After all, timing markets for any extreme is hard. So for buyers who’ve been waiting for more options to choose from, it doesn’t get any better than now. Supply in the Florida real estate market is up 375% in just three years. I’m confident the number where you’re searching in Florida is similar.
With soaring supply, buyers must fine-tune their negotiating skills or work with a realtor who can help you get the best deal possible. Don’t let this extreme market condition slip away. It’s a great time to be actively searching the Florida real estate market for great deals.
(Main Photo: Looking south toward Boca Raton from the Linton intracoastal bridge)
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*** Many experts predicted real estate commissions would crater after the August 17, 2024 NAR Settlement. That’s not the case. I explain how resilient commission are since then in my latest essay
*** It’s Beattles On The Beach Week
*** Michael Mina’s Bourbon Steak opened this Monday inside the Seagate Hotel. Gorgeous
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*** South Florida Real Estate Inventory is Now ABOVE 2019***
Last week’s supply was 60,889
Today’s supply is 60,882
Supply was flat last week
*** That’s a rise of 6,608 or 15% in 2025 ***
