Welcome back to my How’s the Delray Beach Real Estate Market update for June, 2024.
I have three ideas to share with you: recency bias, listing prices are falling, and days on market.
Recency bias clouds our judgment in the way we think things are. We think something that recently happened is true, but it may or not be true with more evidence. Think about shark attacks. What if you had a shark attack in your city last week. You’re going to have a recency bias that you’re not going to the beach because there are shark attacks. But shark attacks around the globe is a low probability event. So, you think there’s going to be shark attacks because that’s what you just heard, but the probability is low
A Slew of Delray Beach Real Estate Charts For You
Let’s look at the first chart that gives us perfect evidence about what’s happening with recency bias: active listings. I’ve been talking about how fast inventory started rising last August. Each week I’d have my inventory supply odometer reading showing you how much it’s going up each and by what percentage. I talk about it weekly. Look at the active listing chart below. It shows from last August, it raced higher until March.
That was the narrative that caught on with mainstream media. They began saying rising inventory would soften prices. Looking at this chart, supply peaked in March. Since then supply is slowing.
So if you’re a homeowner thinking about selling, your recency bias may be that you have all this inventory hitting the market. But the Delray Beach real estate market shifted. Delray Beach real estate is now shifting away from that narrative, that recent bias, and it’s now slowing.
So if you’re a seller, maybe prices will start strengthening because less inventory is hitting the market. That’s a great example about recency bias.
Now let’s look at listing prices and how they are falling.
Here’s the median listing prices in the Delray Beach real estate market. On the top left, you can see the third quarter of last year the median listing prices was $399,000. And then starting in Q4 or October, you see it starting to drop little by little. Last month the median listing price was $300,000.
On a year over year basis, that’s a drop of 25%.
To make the matter better, look at this chart on Delray Beach real estate market active listings.
On the right side of this chart, you can see the median price change of active listings is 7%, and the average price change is 8.72%. So, if your recency bias is that prices are still high – forget it – they are dropping.
Now for home sellers, it’s time to show our Days On Market (DOM). We talk about it every month. The chart below shows last August DOM bottomed at 48 days. Last month was 78 days. That’s a 63% increase in that timeframe.
So, if you’re a seller your recency bias is that DOM was rising.
Delray Beach Real Estate Is In The Path of Migration
Now, for my bonus chart, I’m hearing a lot of people talking about how people are leaving Florida. That they’re moving in droves to other states.
I like looking at data and coming up with decisions based on the information I see. Speaking of which, look at this map.
This shows a map of people who are clicking on “moving to or moving from states.” You can see Florida is the only orange state. More people are choosing to move to Florida. This image shows more than 32,000 people are searching “move to Florida.” That was in May.
Over a year, that’s about 360,000 people searching move to, and who are moving to Florida. The state is growing by the size of Orlando every year. If you’re looking to buy, there’s a lot of growing inventory here. And for homeowners thinking to becoming sellers, you have a lot of people moving here. It’s great for both sides of the transaction.
So even though you have a narrative that things are softening, there are still thousands of people moving to Florida.
About the buyer broker agreement, which goes into law August 17th… There’s too much for me to talk about here. To get more details, click here and here. And while you’re at it sign up for my free weekly e-letter, here.
August 17th is the day how home buyers, agents and sellers work together changes. This is a good thing for the industry. Professionalism will be elevated. A higher level of communication, too.
If I can be of service to you, I’m just a call or text away…
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Delray Beach Real Estate – Your JUNE 2024 Market Update The Delray Beach Real Estate market is strong, yet the increased inventory is helping buyers, as sellers are lowering their prices to stay current with demand. It’s a normal correction based on fundamentals. Right now Delray Beach real estate is seeing more supply, waning demand, price reductions and, well… come on inside for the rest.
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