Inference research is a great way to understand our local real estate market. When real estate prices fall, it helps put context to what’s happening locally.
For example, drive through Delray Beach and our surrounding communities. You’ll be shocked by the amount of new construction.
On west Atlantic Avenue just east of Military Trail is the Enclave at Sherwood Park. It’s a new home development underway that’ll have about 250 homes.
Go out west to Lyons Road or Route 441. Turn north. Along both roads you’ll see GL Homes moving dirt with heavy equipment all over the place. One project will have about 500 homes. Another around 280 homes.
Then there’s the 280-unit apartment complex, Aura Delray Beach, at the corner of Congress and Atlantic Ave. There’s a lot more, but I’ll stop here.
Here’s more: along A1A there are a handful of mega-homes under construction. Same along Federal Hwy, in the La Hacienda neighborhood and NW 4th Ave.
Pivot.
Real Estate Prices Fall Nationally
The chart above is screaming something loud. As you can see, in April/May 2022, home prices were appreciating about 15% – 20% compared to 2021. Since then the appreciation game is falling.
Although prices are rising, they’re doing so at much smaller growth rates. And according to the National Association of Realtors (NAR), appreciation gains last month flatlined from a year ago. In other words, prices are no longer going up.
This is the first time of 0% growth since, well… before 2019. That’s well over 4 years of appreciating real estate prices.
Zero percent growth is nothing to be concerned about, yet. After all, prices don’t go up forever. And who knows if the blue line in the chart does an about-face and heads back up.
Real Estate Prices Fall All Throughout Delray
I have a front-row, center seat to our daily market via our Multiple Listing Service (MLS). In this system I’ve set up over 40 profiles that capture the entire Delray Beach real estate market along with data in our surrounding cities.
And I record the number of properties where real estate prices fall each day.
Since January, 2023, I’ve recorded an average of 4 prices drops each day. That about 360 properties in three months. With inventory in this area arounds 1500 properties, that’s about 24% of total properties.
While real estate prices fall across Delray Beach, we know a few other big themes working at the same time…
Local construction continues at a good pace as real estate prices fall. Buyers are still clamoring for more inventory to buy. Local inventory is still falling (see below). And… high season has about 31 days left before folks head back north and demand weakens.
There’s a lot to unpack here. And that’s what I’ll do each week to help you understand our local real estate market, better.
———————————
*** Earth Day is less than than a month away. Much more on this in April! Are you planning anything cool for this?
*** You might find “The Key To Understanding Current Housing Market Trends“ worth your time.
*** Who went to Savor The Ave on Monday? If so, send me your favorite pic. I may include it in next weeks essay.
———————————-
*** Your Weekly Inventory Update ***
* 4 years ago there were over 54,000 properties available in S. Florida
* It bottomed in February 2022 at 14,485… a 73% drop
* Last week there were 29,335 available… a 115% rise in 13 months
* This morning’s Inventory is 29,303
*** Inventory is DOWN, 11 weeks in a row ***Building While Prices Fall
