It’s a buyers market.
That only took about five years to say. Back in 2019, the “normal” housing supply in South Florida was about 54000 units. And there were about 8-9 Months of Inventory (MOI) at the same time (above 6 months is a buyers market. Below 6 is a sellers market).
Then the pandemic hit in early 2020. That set off one of the strongest sellers markets ever. Demand for Florida real estate shot through the roof, supply crashed, buyers were held hostage with “no” inventory, and the inability to negotiate a dime. The buyers market vanished.
Housing supply hit its low of 14,785 in January 2022. Today’s inventory is 44,389.
Over the past couple months I’ve been sharing MOI data with you that I’m watching like an eagle. Here’s convincing data why it’s now a buyers market.
Data The PROVE’s Its A Buyers Market
On a zip code-by zip code basis, here’s the MOI Results for the month ending February:
* 33483 – east of Dixie Hwy in Delray, and Gulf Stream – 8.12
* 33487 – Highland Beach to Military Rd – 7.68
* 33432 – Boca Raton (east) – 8.96
* 33062 – Hillsboro and Pompano Beach east of Intracoastal – 7.94
* 33480 – Peanut Island to South Palm Beach / Lantana – 15.36
As for the 33480, South Palm Beach area, here’s what it looks like in the most recent data. One the far left you see the 15.36 MOI… and on the orange line to the upper right it’s a strong buyers market:
As you’ll notice, all of these zip codes are “beachside” or east of I95. These zip codes are where you’ll find most of the luxury markets. Historically, the first market to slip is the luxury market. People tighten their wallets, begin spending less, and selling assets they no longer “need.”
When I go west of I95 to the 33445, 33446, 33436, 33486, 33434 and other inland zip codes, it’s still a sellers market, but barely hanging on. The trend is moving from the 5.5 – 6 range… to 6.5 and higher. Based on the trajectory of the luxury market, the west side will become a buyers market as soon as high seasons ends – around late May.
Bottom line is supply continues to surge in South Florida. And that pulls the MOI figure up and away from a sellers market and into a buyers market.
Buyers now have more inventory to consider than they have in the last 4-5 years. That’s putting pressure on sellers to price their property right from the moment their listing goes live. If not, sellers are getting punished and their properties are lingering on the data sheets.
In my newest video released two days ago, I show more data about this transitioning market and what sellers should be doing today to sell their home. I also offer ways buyers can capitalize on this new buyers market.
P.S. If you’re a condo buyer looking for better “deals”, you may want to focus your energy on the 33480 area. With the highest MOI in all of South Florida this is the ultimate buyers market where you’ll be able to negotiate. And if that doesn’t work on your first try, there will be many more options on the market to try again.
[Main Photo: Cruisin’ A1A, Ocean Blvd]
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*** To help sellers prepare your home before you list it on the market, you may want to consider a Pre-Listing Inspection
*** This Saturday is Party Time! Yup the annual St Patrick’s Day Parade (you may see me driving one of those cool Bentley’s)
*** Here’s the best place to watch mortgage rates – they are falling again!
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*** Surging Supply – UP 63% Since August 1, ’23 ***
* Last week there were 43,809 available…
* This morning’s Inventory is 44,389 *
… supply is UP 580 units in the last week ***
