Housing demand is falling fast.
First up, let me share my own website traffic for the last six months. This is for the number of people who inquired (gave me their contact info) and asked me to contact them.
Here’s what falling housing demand looks like from a lead generation perspective:
* October – 53
* November – 48
* December – 44
* January – 46
* February – 31
* March – 16
You can see as high season was ramping up back in October, inquiries were strong until February. This month inquiries crashed.
It’s the same story with my Facebook Ad I’ve been running for 3.6 years.
* October – 21
* November – 23
* December – 25
* January – 36
* February – 25
* March – 6
The data above refers to the amount of new folks inquiring about, of have the intent to, buying real estate. Housing demand is a leading indicator as inquiries take between 4-6 months before they convert into sales.
If this statement holds true, then sales starting in July don’t look promising.
If you’re a data geek like me, have a look at the Florida data produced by Redfin. You can peruse supply, demand and other graphs at your leisure.
Some Housing Demand Editorial
What intrigues me is how buyer housing demand is waning while supply is surging. Since I created my Surging Supply video back in early February, housing supply continues to surge. Increasing supply means prices ease.
With that as our backdrop, shouldn’t we see more housing demand knowing buyers will be able to look at more options and get better deals?
You may object due to increased mortgage rates that are holding you back. But the Federal Reserve continues to hint of them lowering rates three times this year and possible by the end of the second quarter.
I believe this is a huge opportunity if you’re a buyer this year. You see, most people don’t come to this part of Florida in the summer due to our heat and humidity. That’s too bad as this summer may prove to be the best buying season in a long time.
Imagine this: supply is up (see my weekly data below), price drops are rising and overall prices are stabilizing (see the Redfin data), the Federal Reserve is still talking about 3 rate drops this year, and your competition will not be here as they can’t handle our summer heat.
Their loss, your gain.
It seem backwards to me. I’m perplexed that more buyers don’t heed the data and take action on it. I write about the seasonality effect a lot. So if you want to go against the crowd and find a great time to buy this year, come down this summer and buck the housing demand trend data.
Today’s data will be working for you when you arrive.
[main photo: Historic Swinton Avenue. Stunning home from about 100 years ago. Gives Delray its charm and lure. Let’s do what we can to keep it]
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*** Yes, Seller Disclosures are a (big) thing. Let me break it down for you, here.
*** Regular readers know I lived in Costa Rica for 13 years opening 12 real estate offices. During that time my partners and I toured Panama seeking the next great spot. We found it. Now our Panama Island 140 Acres is for sale. If it’s not for you, but you may know of someone who has such international interests, please share this opportunity…
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*** Surging Supply – UP 63% Since August 1, ’23 ***
* Last week there were 44,509 available…
* This morning’s Inventory is 44,613 *
… supply is UP 114 units in the last week ***
