Timing ANY real estate market is one of the hardest things to do… but it doesn’t have to be.
As they say on Wall Street, “you’re either climbing a wall of worry… or walking a valley of defeat.” In normal English – as a market goes up you think it’ll never fall, but you worry it will. Or after falling and pushing everyone out, you cave in and bail out, losing tons of dough.
Both of those lines of thinking will destroy your wealth. Buying high and selling low is not good – but happens all too often. And thinking you’re smarter than the real estate market – knowing when to sell high, or buy low – well… good luck.
In today’s real estate market I hear folks going through gut-wrenching analysis on where the real estate market is heading:
* When rates fall later this year, demand will rise pushing prices up
* I’ll wait until 2024 when inventory roars back, prices fall and deals are everywhere
* Inflation will be back to normal “soon” and will push rates down
* I’ll wait to buy when I see sellers in agony as prices continue to drop even further
* I’ll wait and sell when rates fall back to 4%
* It’s a great time to buy today because…
* It’s a great time to sell today because…
Even “Pro’s” Get The Real Estate Market Wrong
On November 30th, 2022, realtor.com said real estate market prices would rise 5.4% in 2023. Then six days ago they revised the 2023 outlook saying “median home prices will dip 0.6% in 2023.” Those who bought late last year believing realtor.com that prices were going up, sorry. They haven’t. And now they say prices are going down. (I’m not intentionally beating up realtor.com – I’m contextualizing)
I won’t bore you with how many others got it wrong. The point is, there are a half dozen reasons to believe, after intensive research, prices will continue going up. And a half dozen saying prices will fall.
For me, inventory fell by 73% in South Florida’s real estate market two years ago. Last year supply went up over 102%. This year is down 20 of the last 22 weeks (see below). These gyrations are mind-numbing. Where will supply be in 12 months? I’ll let you know.
For me, rates went from about 5% to below 3% from 2018 – 2022. Then rates ripped higher to over 7% in less than 10 months. I’ll let you know in 12 months where rates are then.
If you want a home today and can afford the price and payments, then buy now. If you can’t, then wait.
The ONLY Real Estate Market Graph To Ever Memorize
Why? Look at the chart above. It shows the percentage real estate prices have gone up or down since 1942. Green = Gain. Red = Loss.
Real estate prices have gone UP 73 out of the last 81 years. That’s an 85% win ratio for annualized gains.
Hope that helped.
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*** Want to Buy LAND in downtown Delray Beach and build your own home? Check this out
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*** Your Weekly Inventory Update ***
* 4 years ago there were over 54,000 properties available in S. Florida
* It bottomed in February 2022 at 14,485… a 73% drop
* Last week there were 27,638 available… a 102% rise in 17 months
* This morning’s Inventory is 27,627.
*** Inventory is DOWN 20 of 22 weeks***
