May, 2022, was the peak of the South Florida real estate bull market. Period.
Just look at the two charts and the glaring evidence.
Since first bottoming in May at 21 days, the Days On Market (CDOM) is getting longer each month. Since then it’s up over 100% to 42 days in November. Properties are taking longer to sell.
And the Sold-to-List Ratio chart is more evidence. May was the month when you extracted the most value from your home. Back then it sold for an average of 99.5% from the list price. It’s fallen 7%, to 92.5%.
In other words, a $500k home in May sold for about $497,500. In November it sold for about $462,500. That’s a $35k hit is just 6 months.
We can justify all we want. We can be in denial, too. But none of that helps. What does help is oodles and oodles of data from our MLS (Multiple Listing Service).
I could show you the Absorption Rate chart, but it’d be redundant. Since May, its grown by over 100%. Look…
Now what?
For starters, we must stand in the present moment and make decisions based on current data. Don’t compare today’s market to May. You need to look at data that’s 90 days or less. Beyond that is history.
Data older than 90 days is irrelevant… and it will not serve you.
That goes for buyers and sellers. And to drive the point home further, you need to look at hyper-local data and see what the trend is on a community-by-community basis. Or even street-by-street.
The good news for sellers is inventory is still well below pre-pandemic levels. Back in 2019 there was about 54,000 properties available for sale. Today it’s about 31.000. That’s 42% less. At the same time, demand (still) remains good.
Florida remains a hot-bed for investor and folk migrating away from high tax states, or fleeing the cold. Sellers have a great opportunity to capture on this. But you need to price your home so they will nibble, or bite. South Florida real estate is what they are seeking – so give it to them.
Buyers, are seeing inventory from a different lense. They saw inventory drop to historic lows back in January 2022 near 14,485 units. But since then, it’s up over 115% to today’s levels. This gives them more South Florida real estate to peruse.
And South Florida real estate buyers have been whip-lashed by mortgage rates. Starting this year they were near 3%. After rising above 7.4%, they are now near 6.3%. It’s been a roller coaster ride.
Once again, we are in a new market. It’s changing fast. Don’t be left behind by thinking of what could’ve been. Don’t try and chase what was. That strategy will not serve you.
To achieve your real estate goals, all we know is what is happening today. So act on that.
* Still thinking of South Florida real estate and a downtown Delray Condo for a lifestyle upgrade? Click here.
** Or a beachfront condo where you can listen to crashing waves and enjoy white-water ocean views… (Only if you like LOW HOA fees, no special assessments and that’s next to a Five Start Resort!)
*** #WhoYouWorkWithMatters – I’m grateful for your referrals and your thoughts. If you need South Florida real estate services please call me at 561-777-4089. I’ll answer it.
———————————-
*** Your Weekly INVENTORY Update ***
* 40 months ago there were over 54,000 properties available in the South Florida real estate market. It bottomed this February at 14,485… or a 73% drop.
* Last week there were 31,453 available.
* This morning’s Inventory is 31,524.
*** Inventory is up 117 % since February lows ***
