Just when inventory numbers were stagnating…
Regular readers may be tired of me writing about inventory – supply. But it’s the best LEADING indicator that may show you clues where this local real estate market is going.
To bring you up-to-speed, back in August, data showed inventory stagnating after a massive run-up in the first half of 2022. Prior to that, supply was up 78% in the first six months of this year. But week after week I wrote about how this best leading indicator was slowing. In fact, between mid-August to mid-September supply grew by a paltry 1.2%.
This data, along with mortgage rates blowing above 7% led many – including me – to believe supply would continue to stall out. In my new Delray Beach Market Update video I just published, you’ll see me saying the same. Why? Because a lot of homeowners are locked into 3-4% mortgages. These folks may delay selling their home as they see no need to to enter the market as a buyer at rates more than double their current rate.
A Best Leading Indicator Surprise
Over the last 17 days I’ve watched the daily listing count on my MLS system. It’s been going up – and fast. Since September 14th, inventory is up just over 6%. That’s worth paying closer attention (Below is my weekly Inventory Update).
Is it a local trend with high-season upon us next month? Are sellers trying to get ahead of the flood of snowbirds already en route? Will more inventory put downward pressure on (already) softening prices.
Inventory is the best leading indicator to keep your eye on. You’ll see national reports about how supply of new or existing homes is going up, or down. It depends on two things: location and type of property. So don’t get caught up in the larger, national, data. Focus on your local market – where you plan to buy, or sell.
And while at it, don’t worry about lagging indicators: sold prices and how many units sold. That’s part of the past. If you are a seller, it’s a nice starting point, but you’ll need to focus on the best leading indicator that will show you where the market is going, not where its been.
I’ll be following this like a bald eagle. But next week I may take a tangent and talk about something I’ve yet to share – stay tuned…
* My photo above – Did you know about Boxing matches at the Delray Beach Tennis Center? I was there 2 weeks ago and I’m told there will be more in the months ahead.
** Here’s a neat Delray Beach flip-magazine for you to enjoy and gain insights to all-things high-season.
*** If you know someone who may benefit from my weekly eLetter or who may be in need of my real estate services… I’m NEVER too busy for your referrals. And if that’s YOU, please call me direct on my cell # below.
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*** Your Weekly INVENTORY (Best Leading Indicator) Update ***
* 34 months ago there were over 54,000 properties available in S. Florida. It bottomed this February at 14,485… or a 73% drop.
* Last week there were 28,578 available.
* This morning’s Inventory is 29,119.
*** Inventory is up 101% since February lows… but still down 46% since pre-pandemic
